WISCONSIN
BADGERSWIS
10-5 | Road
91
MICHIGAN
WOLVERINESMICH
14-0 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
BADGERS
100%
WOLVERINES
0%
BADGERS
--
WOLVERINES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Michigan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MICH -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)
WIS By 1-7 points
3.3%
WIS By 8-14 points
0.6%
MICH By 1-7 points
12.2%
MICH By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Wisconsin
55
WISCONSIN
Michigan
72
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
Wisconsin
68
WISCONSIN
Michigan
72
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wolverines
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolverines
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolverines (+18.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Wolverines (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u167.5
Loss
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim
u167.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
WIS @ MICH
65 - 68
Jan 10, 2026
WIS @ MICH
91 - 88
Mar 16, 2025
WIS @ MICH
53 - 59
Dec 3, 2024
MICH @ WIS
67 - 64
Feb 7, 2024
WIS @ MICH
68 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+229.3% more
Michigan: 6.2
vs
Wisconsin: 1.9
Steals (L5)
+43.1% more
Michigan: 7.0
vs
Wisconsin: 4.9
Assists (L5)
+37.9% more
Michigan: 18.9
vs
Wisconsin: 13.7
Turnovers (L5)
+20.9% more
Michigan: 11.9
vs
Wisconsin: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WIS Score
55.0
91
MICH Score
72.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.5 / 28.3
32.0 / 45.0
Assists
18.9 / 13.7
11.0 / 16.0
Blocks
6.2 / 1.9
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.1 / 45.3
47.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 73.2
92.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
41.3 / 36.5
32.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.0 / 4.9
1.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 9.8
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
MICH
Advantage
37-3-0
(92.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
MICH
19-21-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
22-13-0
O: 62.9% / U: 37.1%
Total +/-: +3.5
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
WIS
MICH
WIS
ML
78%
31-9
60%
21-14
63%
24-14
69%
24-11
ATS
78%
31-9
51%
18-17
63%
24-14
69%
24-11
TTL
57%
23-17
57%
20-15
100%
38-0
100%
35-0
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