Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Nittany Lions @ Boilermakers PSU @ PUR

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

9-6  |  Road

85
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 2:00 PM ET
Mackey Arena
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

BOILERMAKERSPUR

14-1  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
100%
📊
BOILERMAKERS
0%
NITTANY LIONS --
BOILERMAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Purdue)
Nittany LionsPSU (-3.5) 0 BoilermakersPUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nittany Lions Cover

30.9%

Boilermakers Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

PSU By 1-7 points

18.6%

PSU By 8-14 points

8.0%

PUR By 1-7 points

27.2%

PUR By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
77
PENN STATE
82
PURDUE
Simulated Score
67
PENN STATE
78
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Boilermakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Boilermakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 PSU @ PUR 85 - 93
Dec 5, 2024 PUR @ PSU 70 - 81
Jan 13, 2024 PSU @ PUR 78 - 95
Mar 12, 2023 PSU @ PUR 65 - 67
Feb 1, 2023 PSU @ PUR 60 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +107.5% more
Purdue: 3.3 vs Penn State: 1.6
Assists (L5) +75.6% more
Purdue: 21.0 vs Penn State: 12.0
Field Goal % (L5) +12.9%
Purdue: 53.2% vs Penn State: 40.3%
Turnovers (L5) +11.4% more
Purdue: 10.8 vs Penn State: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 77.0 85
PUR Score 82.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 28.5 38.0 / 44.0
Assists 21.0 / 12.0 25.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.3 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 53.2 / 40.3 58.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 74.8 / 73.8 43.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 34.4 27.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.1 / 8.1 7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 9.7 3.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
PUR Advantage
30-9-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
PUR Advantage
17-22-0 (43.6%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
PSU
PUR
PSU
ML
67% 26-13
72% 23-9
66% 25-13
56% 18-14
ATS
64% 25-14
72% 23-9
66% 25-13
56% 18-14
TTL
51% 20-19
66% 21-11
100% 38-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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