Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Beavers @ Pilots ORST @ PORT

OREGON STATE

BEAVERSORST

9-9  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Chiles Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

8-10  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
BEAVERS
0%
📊
PILOTS
100%
BEAVERS --
PILOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Oregon State)
BeaversORST (-3.5) 0 PilotsPORT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beavers Cover

98.2%

Pilots Cover

1.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORST -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

ORST By 1-7 points

6.8%

ORST By 8-14 points

16.9%

PORT By 1-7 points

1.4%

PORT By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
96
OREGON STATE
75
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
68
OREGON STATE
72
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Beavers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pilots Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Beavers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Pilots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 ORST @ PORT 76 - 82
Feb 13, 2025 ORST @ PORT 72 - 84
Dec 30, 2024 PORT @ ORST 79 - 89
Dec 10, 2020 PORT @ ORST 87 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +49.3% more
Oregon State: 6.7 vs Portland: 3.4
Blocks (L5) +31.9% more
Oregon State: 3.9 vs Portland: 2.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Oregon State: 36.2% vs Portland: 34.6%
Assists (L5) +27.2% more
Portland: 15.5 vs Oregon State: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORST Score 96.0 76
PORT Score 75.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 36.2 27.0 / 37.0
Assists 15.5 / 12.2 14.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.9 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 39.7 43.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 77.6 / 74.8 88.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 31.6 / 33.4 32.0 / 26.0
Steals 3.4 / 6.7 4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 12.3 7.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
98%MONEY2%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
PORT
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
PORT
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +1.1
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PORT
ORST
PORT
ORST
ML
48% 16-17
45% 15-18
82% 27-6
59% 19-13
ATS
67% 22-11
48% 16-17
82% 28-6
59% 19-13
TTL
55% 18-15
55% 18-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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