HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
HUSKIESHCU
5-10 | Road
67
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
12-3 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
HUSKIES
100%
LUMBERJACKS
0%
HUSKIES
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Stephen F. Austin)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SFA -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFA)
HCU By 1-7 points
5.8%
HCU By 8-14 points
1.4%
SFA By 1-7 points
16.9%
SFA By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston Christian
64
HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
Stephen F. Austin
78
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Simulated Score
Houston Christian
63
HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
Stephen F. Austin
81
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks (-12)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.0
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u138.0
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
SFA @ HCU
77 - 56
Jan 10, 2026
HCU @ SFA
67 - 85
Feb 24, 2025
SFA @ HCU
56 - 72
Jan 6, 2025
HCU @ SFA
83 - 73
Dec 18, 2019
HCU @ SFA
68 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+38.2% more
Stephen F. Austin: 42.0
vs
Houston Christian: 30.4
Assists (L5)
+8.6% more
Stephen F. Austin: 13.7
vs
Houston Christian: 12.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.3%
Stephen F. Austin: 34.9%
vs
Houston Christian: 26.6%
Blocks (L5)
+35.1% more
Houston Christian: 3.5
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HCU Score
64.0
67
SFA Score
78.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 26.6
34.0 / 29.0
Assists
13.7 / 12.6
20.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.3 / 3.5
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 42.7
47.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
66.4 / 69.5
83.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
42.0 / 30.4
37.0 / 27.0
Steals
6.0 / 5.6
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 14.7
6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HCU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -0.9
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HCU
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -0.9
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HCU
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -0.1
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFA
HCU
SFA
HCU
ML
59%
17-12
68%
21-10
79%
23-6
81%
25-6
ATS
59%
17-12
58%
18-13
79%
23-6
81%
26-6
TTL
62%
18-11
68%
21-10
100%
29-0
100%
32-0
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