Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Monarchs @ Dukes ODU @ JMU

OLD DOMINION

MONARCHSODU

5-12  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 4:00 PM ET
Atlantic Union Bank Center
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

8-8  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
MONARCHS
100%
📊
DUKES
0%
MONARCHS --
DUKES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (James Madison)
MonarchsODU (-3.5) 0 DukesJMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Monarchs Cover

46.0%

Dukes Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JMU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

ODU By 1-7 points

24.3%

ODU By 8-14 points

13.7%

JMU By 1-7 points

26.2%

JMU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
69
OLD DOMINION
70
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
70
OLD DOMINION
76
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dukes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dukes (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Dukes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 ODU @ JMU 69 - 70
Dec 17, 2025 JMU @ ODU 68 - 77
Feb 1, 2025 ODU @ JMU 54 - 68
Jan 22, 2025 JMU @ ODU 74 - 60
Feb 3, 2024 ODU @ JMU 63 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +42.9% more
James Madison: 4.0 vs Old Dominion: 2.8
Turnovers (L5) +18.7% more
James Madison: 12.4 vs Old Dominion: 10.5
Free Throw % (L5) +5.4%
James Madison: 66.5% vs Old Dominion: 61.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
James Madison: 45.1% vs Old Dominion: 42.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ODU Score 69.0 69
JMU Score 70.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 33.3 18.0 / 39.0
Assists 11.6 / 12.1 11.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.0 / 2.8 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 42.0 49.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 66.5 / 61.1 80.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 39.2 42.0 / 30.0
Steals 4.6 / 6.4 3.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 10.5 16.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ODU
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
JMU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ODU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ODU
21-10-1
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +3.0
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
ODU
JMU
ODU
ML
64% 21-12
52% 17-16
66% 21-11
67% 22-11
ATS
67% 22-11
70% 23-10
66% 21-11
67% 22-11
TTL
67% 22-11
70% 23-10
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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