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KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

9-6  |  Road

84
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 3:00 PM ET
Desert Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

9-6  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
SUN DEVILS
0%
WILDCATS --
SUN DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Arizona State)
WildcatsKSU (-3.5) 0 Sun DevilsASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

1.4%

Sun Devils Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ASU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

KSU By 1-7 points

1.1%

KSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

ASU By 1-7 points

5.8%

ASU By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
56
KANSAS STATE
78
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
68
KANSAS STATE
72
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sun Devils Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sun Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sun Devils (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Sun Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u169.5 Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u169.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 KSU @ ASU 84 - 87
Mar 11, 2025 ASU @ KSU 66 - 71
Feb 23, 2025 ASU @ KSU 66 - 54
Feb 4, 2025 KSU @ ASU 71 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +15.7% more
Arizona State: 13.1 vs Kansas State: 11.3
Blocks (L5) +10.4% more
Arizona State: 4.3 vs Kansas State: 3.9
Rebounding (L5) +8.2% more
Kansas State: 37.2 vs Arizona State: 34.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KSU Score 56.0 84
ASU Score 78.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.0 / 27.4 14.0 / 42.0
Assists 16.4 / 17.5 14.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.9 10.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 42.8 47.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 78.2 / 77.9 75.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 34.1 / 37.2 48.0 / 34.0
Steals 8.0 / 8.2 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 11.3 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
ASU Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
KSU
ASU
KSU
ML
52% 17-16
59% 19-13
68% 21-10
69% 22-10
ATS
52% 17-16
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
69% 22-10
TTL
64% 21-12
47% 15-17
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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