GEORGIA SOUTHERN
EAGLESGASO
12-5 | Road
71
SOUTH ALABAMA
JAGUARSUSA
11-5 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
JAGUARS
100%
EAGLES
--
JAGUARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Georgia Southern)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GASO -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)
GASO By 1-7 points
2.2%
GASO By 8-14 points
8.0%
USA By 1-7 points
0.3%
USA By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Georgia Southern
78
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
South Alabama
51
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
Georgia Southern
68
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
South Alabama
72
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Eagles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jaguars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Eagles (-11.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Jaguars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u177.5
Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u177.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
GASO @ USA
94 - 85
Jan 10, 2026
GASO @ USA
71 - 87
Jan 4, 2025
USA @ GASO
76 - 47
Mar 7, 2024
GASO @ USA
76 - 71
Feb 7, 2024
GASO @ USA
65 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+51.3% more
Georgia Southern: 5.3
vs
South Alabama: 2.6
Assists (L5)
+28.8% more
Georgia Southern: 11.8
vs
South Alabama: 8.4
Rebounding (L5)
+12.4% more
Georgia Southern: 41.1
vs
South Alabama: 36.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.4%
Georgia Southern: 78.2%
vs
South Alabama: 72.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GASO Score
78.0
71
USA Score
51.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.4 / 30.4
64.0 / 27.0
Assists
8.4 / 11.8
18.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.6 / 5.3
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
41.5 / 44.3
59.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
72.8 / 78.2
64.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
36.0 / 41.1
43.0 / 30.0
Steals
8.1 / 7.7
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 9.3
14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: -0.1
USA
Advantage
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO
17-18-0
(48.6%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: -0.1
USA
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6%
Total +/-: +2.6
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
GASO
USA
GASO
ML
47%
15-17
56%
20-16
57%
17-13
58%
19-14
ATS
53%
17-15
64%
23-13
57%
17-13
58%
19-14
TTL
66%
21-11
61%
22-14
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
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