Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Aztecs FRES @ SDSU

FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

7-8  |  Road

52
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 11:00 PM ET
Viejas Arena
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

10-4  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
AZTECS
0%
BULLDOGS --
AZTECS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (San Diego State)
BulldogsFRES (-3.5) 0 AztecsSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

0.0%

Aztecs Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDSU -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

FRES By 1-7 points

0.0%

FRES By 8-14 points

0.0%

SDSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

SDSU By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
48
FRESNO STATE
87
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
63
FRESNO STATE
72
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aztecs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aztecs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aztecs (-14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -39.0
D
Sim Aztecs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 FRES @ SDSU 52 - 71
Feb 18, 2025 FRES @ SDSU 60 - 83
Dec 4, 2024 SDSU @ FRES 84 - 62
Feb 24, 2024 SDSU @ FRES 73 - 41
Jan 3, 2024 FRES @ SDSU 47 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +180.0% more
San Diego State: 4.5 vs Fresno State: 1.6
Assists (L5) +25.1% more
San Diego State: 18.1 vs Fresno State: 14.5
Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
San Diego State: 51.0% vs Fresno State: 45.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
San Diego State: 36.4% vs Fresno State: 33.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 48.0 52
SDSU Score 87.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 33.6 21.0 / 28.0
Assists 18.1 / 14.5 17.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.5 / 1.6 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.0 / 45.1 40.0 / 31.0
Free Throw % 70.2 / 76.9 75.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 38.7 / 35.9 48.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.6 / 7.2 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 15.2 11.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
SDSU Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
SDSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
FRES
SDSU
FRES
ML
62% 20-12
59% 19-13
72% 23-9
74% 23-8
ATS
69% 22-10
75% 24-8
72% 23-9
74% 23-8
TTL
75% 24-8
56% 18-14
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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