UT MARTIN
SKYHAWKSUTM
12-4 | Road
73
SOUTHERN INDIANA
SCREAMING EAGLESUSI
3-12 | Home
56
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
100%
SCREAMING EAGLES
0%
SKYHAWKS
--
SCREAMING EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
203.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
SOUTHERN INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Southern Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USI -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USI)
UTM By 1-7 points
12.2%
UTM By 8-14 points
4.0%
USI By 1-7 points
24.3%
USI By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UT Martin
97
UT MARTIN
Southern Indiana
106
SOUTHERN INDIANA
Simulated Score
UT Martin
68
UT MARTIN
Southern Indiana
72
SOUTHERN INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Screaming Eagles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Screaming Eagles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Screaming Eagles (+5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Screaming Eagles (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o137.5
Loss
Proj Total: 203.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
USI @ UTM
54 - 76
Jan 10, 2026
UTM @ USI
73 - 56
Feb 27, 2025
USI @ UTM
63 - 79
Dec 21, 2024
UTM @ USI
77 - 46
Feb 15, 2024
USI @ UTM
68 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+13.8% more
Southern Indiana: 13.8
vs
UT Martin: 12.2
Blocks (L5)
+27.2% more
UT Martin: 5.0
vs
Southern Indiana: 3.6
Steals (L5)
+9.2% more
UT Martin: 7.9
vs
Southern Indiana: 7.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
UT Martin: 43.3%
vs
Southern Indiana: 40.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTM Score
97.0
73
USI Score
106.0
56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.5 / 30.4
31.0 / 44.0
Assists
10.1 / 10.5
4.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.6 / 5.0
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
40.7 / 43.3
29.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
74.0 / 73.0
62.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
34.8 / 37.4
28.0 / 45.0
Steals
7.2 / 7.9
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 12.2
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
USI
7-23-0
(23.3%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
USI
11-16-1
(40.7%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0%
Total +/-: -8.2
USI
11-17-0
O: 39.3% / U: 60.7%
Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USI
UTM
USI
UTM
ML
67%
20-10
69%
22-10
61%
17-11
69%
20-9
ATS
70%
21-9
56%
18-14
61%
17-11
69%
20-9
TTL
73%
22-8
44%
14-18
100%
28-0
100%
29-0
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