Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Raiders @ Aggies MTSU @ NMSU

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

9-6  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Pan American Center
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

9-5  |  Home

55
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE RAIDERS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
BLUE RAIDERS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (New Mexico State)
Blue RaidersMTSU (-3.5) 0 AggiesNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Raiders Cover

27.4%

Aggies Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NMSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

MTSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

MTSU By 8-14 points

6.8%

NMSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

NMSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
67
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
73
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
68
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
72
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 NMSU @ MTSU 85 - 86
Jan 10, 2026 MTSU @ NMSU 59 - 55
Feb 27, 2025 MTSU @ NMSU 71 - 66
Jan 30, 2025 NMSU @ MTSU 61 - 57
Feb 15, 2024 NMSU @ MTSU 69 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +15.2% more
New Mexico State: 38.0 vs Middle Tennessee: 33.0
Free Throw % (L5) +2.7%
New Mexico State: 75.2% vs Middle Tennessee: 72.5%
Steals (L5) +18.9% more
Middle Tennessee: 7.1 vs New Mexico State: 5.8
Assists (L5) +13.2% more
Middle Tennessee: 13.6 vs New Mexico State: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 67.0 59
NMSU Score 73.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 37.5 24.0 / 21.0
Assists 11.8 / 13.6 11.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.0 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 45.2 35.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 72.5 59.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 38.0 / 33.0 37.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.8 / 7.1 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 11.5 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
NMSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
NMSU Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
MTSU
NMSU
MTSU
ML
61% 19-12
56% 18-14
67% 20-10
69% 22-10
ATS
65% 20-11
75% 24-8
67% 20-10
69% 22-10
TTL
45% 14-17
53% 17-15
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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