SAMFORD
BULLDOGSSAM
9-7 | Road
79
CHATTANOOGA
MOCSUTC
6-10 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
MOCS
100%
BULLDOGS
--
MOCS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-49.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +49.0 points (Samford)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAM -49.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)
SAM By 1-7 points
0.0%
SAM By 8-14 points
0.0%
UTC By 1-7 points
0.0%
UTC By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Samford
103
SAMFORD
Chattanooga
54
CHATTANOOGA
Simulated Score
Samford
75
SAMFORD
Chattanooga
78
CHATTANOOGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mocs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -49.0
D
Sim
Mocs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
UTC @ SAM
64 - 75
Jan 10, 2026
SAM @ UTC
79 - 88
Feb 12, 2025
UTC @ SAM
82 - 68
Jan 23, 2025
SAM @ UTC
73 - 69
Feb 3, 2024
SAM @ UTC
78 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+37.4% more
Samford: 3.9
vs
Chattanooga: 2.5
Assists (L5)
+19.1% more
Samford: 17.5
vs
Chattanooga: 14.1
Rebounding (L5)
+16.9% more
Samford: 37.7
vs
Chattanooga: 31.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Samford: 46.4%
vs
Chattanooga: 41.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAM Score
103.0
79
UTC Score
54.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 37.4
42.0 / 32.0
Assists
14.1 / 17.5
16.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.5 / 3.9
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.8 / 46.4
48.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
73.9 / 69.3
92.0 / 61.0
Rebounding
31.4 / 37.7
33.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.4 / 4.0
6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 7.8
3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
UTC
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
UTC
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTC
SAM
UTC
SAM
ML
48%
15-16
65%
20-11
53%
16-14
68%
21-10
ATS
52%
16-15
68%
21-10
55%
17-14
68%
21-10
TTL
77%
24-7
35%
11-20
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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