ARIZONA
WILDCATSARIZ
15-0 | Road
86
TCU
HORNED FROGSTCU
11-4 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
HORNED FROGS
100%
WILDCATS
--
HORNED FROGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ARIZ -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)
ARIZ By 1-7 points
18.6%
ARIZ By 8-14 points
26.8%
TCU By 1-7 points
6.8%
TCU By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
77
ARIZONA
TCU
64
TCU
Simulated Score
Arizona
72
ARIZONA
TCU
78
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Horned Frogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Horned Frogs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 10, 2026
ARIZ @ TCU
86 - 73
Dec 30, 2024
TCU @ ARIZ
81 - 90
Mar 20, 2022
TCU @ ARIZ
80 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+20.7% more
Arizona: 9.3
vs
TCU: 7.4
Rebounding (L5)
+15.3% more
Arizona: 47.8
vs
TCU: 40.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
Arizona: 51.8%
vs
TCU: 47.1%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.0%
Arizona: 75.3%
vs
TCU: 72.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score
77.0
86
TCU Score
64.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.2 / 32.6
29.0 / 44.0
Assists
19.3 / 19.0
13.0 / 21.0
Blocks
7.1 / 6.3
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 51.8
42.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
72.2 / 75.3
71.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
40.5 / 47.8
32.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.4 / 9.3
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 10.6
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ
Advantage
36-3-0
(92.3%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +3.2
TCU
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ
Advantage
23-15-1
(60.5%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +3.2
TCU
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: -1.4
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
ARIZ
TCU
ARIZ
ML
74%
26-9
67%
26-13
63%
19-11
68%
23-11
ATS
74%
26-9
74%
29-10
63%
19-11
68%
23-11
TTL
66%
23-12
56%
22-17
100%
30-0
100%
34-0
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