Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mustangs @ Blue Devils SMU @ DUKE

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

12-3  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 2:00 PM ET
Cameron Indoor Stadium
View Odds Details →

DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

14-1  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
📊
BLUE DEVILS
0%
MUSTANGS --
BLUE DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Duke)
MustangsSMU (-3.5) 0 Blue DevilsDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mustangs Cover

9.7%

Blue Devils Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DUKE -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

SMU By 1-7 points

6.8%

SMU By 8-14 points

1.7%

DUKE By 1-7 points

18.6%

DUKE By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
82
SMU
95
DUKE
Simulated Score
71
SMU
78
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Blue Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 SMU @ DUKE 75 - 82
Jan 4, 2025 DUKE @ SMU 89 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +52.5% more
Duke: 9.6 vs SMU: 6.3
Turnovers (L5) +18.7% more
Duke: 13.0 vs SMU: 10.9
Assists (L5) +19.1% more
SMU: 18.3 vs Duke: 14.8
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
SMU: 78.5% vs Duke: 73.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMU Score 82.0 75
DUKE Score 95.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 39.0 42.0 / 50.0
Assists 14.8 / 18.3 18.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.8 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 48.7 49.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 73.0 / 78.5 78.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 37.1 23.0 / 30.0
Steals 9.6 / 6.3 12.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 10.9 13.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
DUKE Advantage
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
SMU
DUKE
SMU
ML
71% 27-11
59% 20-14
73% 24-9
73% 24-9
ATS
79% 30-8
62% 21-13
73% 24-9
73% 24-9
TTL
47% 18-20
56% 19-15
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
si 1 day, 13 hours ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 7 hours ago
Duke's Cameron Crazies Crowned Top Student Section for 2026-27
yahoo 6 days, 7 hours ago
Duke Hosts Five-Star Asa Montgomery for Official Visit, Looking …
yahoo 1 week ago
Caleb Foster Anchors Duke's Loaded Backcourt for 2026-27
headtopics 1 week, 5 days ago