NC STATE
WOLFPACKNCSU
11-5 | Road
113
FLORIDA STATE
SEMINOLESFSU
7-8 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
WOLFPACK
100%
SEMINOLES
0%
WOLFPACK
--
SEMINOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (Florida State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FSU -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)
NCSU By 1-7 points
0.0%
NCSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
FSU By 1-7 points
0.1%
FSU By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
NC State
50
NC STATE
Florida State
89
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
NC State
70
NC STATE
Florida State
73
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Seminoles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seminoles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Seminoles (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -39.0
D
Sim
Seminoles (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.5
Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 10, 2026
NCSU @ FSU
113 - 69
Dec 7, 2024
FSU @ NCSU
74 - 84
Feb 27, 2024
NCSU @ FSU
83 - 90
Feb 1, 2023
FSU @ NCSU
66 - 94
Mar 5, 2022
NCSU @ FSU
76 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+30.0% more
Florida State: 11.7
vs
NC State: 9.0
Blocks (L5)
+29.7% more
Florida State: 3.4
vs
NC State: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+16.9% more
NC State: 9.4
vs
Florida State: 7.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
NC State: 40.9%
vs
Florida State: 36.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score
50.0
113
FSU Score
89.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.2 / 40.9
22.0 / 54.0
Assists
15.7 / 15.5
7.0 / 20.0
Blocks
3.4 / 2.6
2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 44.6
39.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
68.7 / 67.3
69.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
34.0 / 31.8
25.0 / 44.0
Steals
7.8 / 9.4
5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 9.0
13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
FSU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
16-17-1
(48.5%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
FSU
Advantage
19-13-1
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2%
Total +/-: +6.0
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
NCSU
FSU
NCSU
ML
64%
21-12
59%
20-14
59%
19-13
55%
18-15
ATS
55%
18-15
71%
24-10
59%
19-13
55%
18-15
TTL
48%
16-17
71%
24-10
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
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