ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
18-21 | Road
110
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
25-12 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
HAWKS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
ATL By 1-7 points
16.9%
ATL By 8-14 points
6.8%
DEN By 1-7 points
26.8%
DEN By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
117
ATLANTA
Denver
123
DENVER
Simulated Score
Atlanta
114
ATLANTA
Denver
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+2)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o232.0
Loss
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Sim
u232.0
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 9, 2026
ATL @ DEN
110 - 87
Dec 5, 2025
DEN @ ATL
134 - 133
Jan 1, 2025
ATL @ DEN
120 - 139
Dec 8, 2024
DEN @ ATL
141 - 111
Apr 6, 2024
ATL @ DEN
110 - 142
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+17.2% more
Denver: 5.9
vs
Atlanta: 5.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Denver: 41.8%
vs
Atlanta: 38.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.2%
Denver: 75.9%
vs
Atlanta: 72.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Denver: 47.7%
vs
Atlanta: 45.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
117.0
110
DEN Score
123.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.8 / 38.0
34.0 / 37.0
Assists
26.7 / 30.8
22.0 / 31.0
Blocks
5.9 / 5.0
2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.7 / 45.1
42.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
75.9 / 72.6
80.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
38.1 / 45.1
44.0 / 40.0
Steals
6.2 / 11.1
6.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 16.6
19.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
ATL
DEN
ATL
ML
54%
57-48
50%
52-52
55%
47-39
55%
48-40
ATS
63%
65-38-2
53%
55-48-1
55%
47-39
55%
48-40
TTL
54%
56-48-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
86-0
100%
88-0
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
Donovan Mitchell Sounds Off on Ring Culture Disrespect Toward Ja…
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…