WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
22-16-6 | Road
5
CHICAGO
BLACKHAWKSCHI
18-18-7 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Drew Commesso
#33 | G| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 1.00 | 0.958 | -- |
| Drew Commesso | None-None | 5.00 | 0.792 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00 Ldr
GAA
5.00
0.958 Ldr
Save %
0.792
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
BLACKHAWKS
0%
CAPITALS
--
BLACKHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)
WSH By 1 goal
12.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
9.3%
CHI By 1 goal
19.7%
CHI By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blackhawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blackhawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blackhawks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Blackhawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Push
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 9, 2026
WSH @ CHI
5 - 1
Jan 3, 2026
CHI @ WSH
3 - 2
Apr 4, 2025
CHI @ WSH
3 - 5
Dec 17, 2024
WSH @ CHI
2 - 3
Mar 9, 2024
CHI @ WSH
1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+57.0% more
Chicago: 6.8
vs
Washington: 4.3
Power Play % (L5)
+34.6%
Chicago: 40.8%
vs
Washington: 6.2%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+34.0% more
Washington: 18.7
vs
Chicago: 12.3
Hits (L5)
+12.0% more
Washington: 20.3
vs
Chicago: 17.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
5
CHI Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.3 / 18.7
6.0 / 9.0
Faceoff %
52.0 / 53.4
53.8 / 46.2
Hits
17.8 / 20.3
23.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
40.8 / 6.2
25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.6 / 28.0
24.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
6.8 / 4.3
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
WSH
CHI
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
TTL
33%
1-2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1-1
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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Gavin McKenna Nets First NHL Goal and Assist in Maple Leafs' Ove…