HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
22-12 | Road
105
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
18-20 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
ROCKETS
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
24.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
26.8%
POR By 1-7 points
12.2%
POR By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
116
HOUSTON
Portland
107
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Houston
110
HOUSTON
Portland
115
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o220.5
Loss
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim
u220.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
POR @ HOU
99 - 106
Jan 9, 2026
HOU @ POR
105 - 111
Jan 7, 2026
HOU @ POR
102 - 103
Nov 14, 2025
POR @ HOU
116 - 140
Jan 18, 2025
HOU @ POR
125 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+31.4% more
Houston: 5.6
vs
Portland: 3.8
Rebounding (L5)
+15.2% more
Houston: 52.0
vs
Portland: 44.1
Steals (L5)
+14.7% more
Houston: 8.0
vs
Portland: 6.8
Assists (L5)
+12.0% more
Portland: 25.0
vs
Houston: 22.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
116.0
105
POR Score
107.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.8 / 27.9
36.0 / 23.0
Assists
25.0 / 22.3
26.0 / 21.0
Blocks
3.8 / 5.6
3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 44.0
42.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
77.4 / 73.1
91.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
44.1 / 52.0
43.0 / 56.0
Steals
6.8 / 8.0
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 14.3
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
HOU
POR
HOU
ML
53%
56-49
61%
69-44
55%
49-40
59%
51-35
ATS
62%
65-39-1
62%
70-43
55%
49-40
59%
51-35
TTL
56%
58-46-1
51%
58-55
100%
89-0
100%
86-0
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