Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Celtics TOR @ BOS

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

23-15  |  Road

117
FINAL
Fri, Jan 9 • 7:00 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

23-13  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
RAPTORS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Boston)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

30.9%

Celtics Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

TOR By 1-7 points

18.6%

TOR By 8-14 points

8.0%

BOS By 1-7 points

27.2%

BOS By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
104
TORONTO
109
BOSTON
Simulated Score
108
TORONTO
115
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (+11) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u223.5 Loss
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Sim u223.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 TOR @ BOS 101 - 115
Jan 9, 2026 TOR @ BOS 117 - 125
Dec 20, 2025 BOS @ TOR 112 - 96
Dec 7, 2025 BOS @ TOR 121 - 113
Oct 15, 2025 TOR @ BOS 108 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +11.6% more
Boston: 5.6 vs Toronto: 5.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.8%
Boston: 39.3% vs Toronto: 28.5%
Assists (L5) +16.2% more
Toronto: 26.0 vs Boston: 21.8
Steals (L5) +15.5% more
Toronto: 7.9 vs Boston: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 104.0 117
BOS Score 109.0 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.3 / 28.5 50.0 / 38.0
Assists 21.8 / 26.0 28.0 / 39.0
Blocks 5.6 / 5.0 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 45.4 54.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 76.4 89.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 49.1 / 46.0 40.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.7 / 7.9 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 10.5 10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TOR
BOS
TOR
ML
57% 61-46
55% 57-47
53% 47-41
55% 48-39
ATS
59% 61-43-3
61% 62-40-2
53% 47-41
55% 48-39
TTL
56% 60-47
60% 62-42
100% 88-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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