NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
8-31 | Road
128
WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
10-26 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
0%
WIZARDS
100%
PELICANS
--
WIZARDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New Orleans)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)
NO By 1-7 points
27.2%
NO By 8-14 points
20.1%
WSH By 1-7 points
21.6%
WSH By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
126
NEW ORLEANS
Washington
123
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
New Orleans
112
NEW ORLEANS
Washington
118
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wizards
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans (-3)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Wizards (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o243.5
Loss
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim
u243.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
WSH @ NO
118 - 138
Jan 9, 2026
NO @ WSH
128 - 107
Jan 5, 2025
NO @ WSH
110 - 98
Jan 3, 2025
WSH @ NO
120 - 132
Feb 14, 2024
WSH @ NO
126 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+9.4% more
New Orleans: 9.6
vs
Washington: 8.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+19.5%
Washington: 91.1%
vs
New Orleans: 71.7%
Blocks (L5)
+8.1% more
Washington: 7.4
vs
New Orleans: 6.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.2%
Washington: 36.6%
vs
New Orleans: 30.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
126.0
128
WSH Score
123.0
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 30.3
31.0 / 32.0
Assists
25.9 / 26.0
24.0 / 30.0
Blocks
7.4 / 6.9
8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 44.7
43.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
91.1 / 71.7
67.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
43.3 / 42.5
40.0 / 51.0
Steals
8.7 / 9.6
10.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
17.9 / 17.6
19.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NO
WSH
NO
ML
70%
112-49
62%
98-61
47%
39-44
58%
48-35
ATS
69%
111-49-1
68%
107-51-1
47%
39-44
58%
48-35
TTL
74%
119-41-1
75%
119-40
100%
83-0
100%
83-0
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