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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

31-7  |  Road

117
FINAL
Fri, Jan 9 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
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MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

16-21  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
THUNDER --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Memphis)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

30.9%

Grizzlies Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

OKC By 1-7 points

18.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

8.0%

MEM By 1-7 points

27.2%

MEM By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
121
OKLAHOMA CITY
126
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
114
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o230.0 Win
Proj Total: 247.0
D
Sim u230.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 9, 2026 OKC @ MEM 117 - 116
Dec 22, 2025 MEM @ OKC 103 - 119
Nov 9, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 100
Apr 26, 2025 OKC @ MEM 117 - 115
Apr 24, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +60.0% more
Memphis: 17.3 vs Oklahoma City: 10.8
Rebounding (L5) +15.4% more
Memphis: 48.6 vs Oklahoma City: 42.1
Assists (L5) +11.9% more
Memphis: 27.1 vs Oklahoma City: 24.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
Memphis: 32.9% vs Oklahoma City: 27.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 121.0 117
MEM Score 126.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 27.8 34.0 / 24.0
Assists 27.1 / 24.2 35.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.6 / 7.3 4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 45.1 47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 69.9 / 81.1 83.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 48.6 / 42.1 52.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.1 / 11.3 4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 17.3 / 10.8 17.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
OKC
MEM
OKC
ML
57% 59-44
70% 80-34
50% 41-41
48% 46-49
ATS
63% 65-38
73% 83-30-1
50% 41-41
48% 46-49
TTL
70% 71-31-1
67% 76-38
100% 82-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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