SAINT PETER'S
PEACOCKSSPU
7-5 | Road
65
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
MOUNTAINEERSMSM
5-11 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
PEACOCKS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
PEACOCKS
--
MOUNTAINEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Mount St. Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSM -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSM)
SPU By 1-7 points
0.3%
SPU By 8-14 points
0.0%
MSM By 1-7 points
2.2%
MSM By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Peter's
56
SAINT PETER'S
Mount St. Mary's
83
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Simulated Score
Saint Peter's
65
SAINT PETER'S
Mount St. Mary's
68
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mountaineers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mountaineers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mountaineers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Mountaineers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
MSM @ SPU
58 - 66
Jan 9, 2026
SPU @ MSM
65 - 70
Feb 21, 2025
SPU @ MSM
58 - 69
Feb 2, 2025
MSM @ SPU
79 - 64
Feb 23, 2024
SPU @ MSM
70 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+41.1% more
Mount St. Mary's: 15.5
vs
Saint Peter's: 11.0
Assists (L5)
+27.3% more
Mount St. Mary's: 13.9
vs
Saint Peter's: 11.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Mount St. Mary's: 41.6%
vs
Saint Peter's: 38.6%
Steals (L5)
+16.6% more
Saint Peter's: 9.2
vs
Mount St. Mary's: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SPU Score
56.0
65
MSM Score
83.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.8 / 25.7
33.0 / 26.0
Assists
13.9 / 11.0
10.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.4 / 3.9
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
41.6 / 38.6
38.0 / 29.0
Free Throw %
68.6 / 78.7
81.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
36.1 / 38.8
41.0 / 42.0
Steals
7.7 / 9.2
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
15.5 / 11.0
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SPU
Advantage
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
MSM
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SPU
Advantage
16-11-1
(59.3%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
MSM
17-13-1
(56.7%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SPU
10-18-0
O: 35.7% / U: 64.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSM
SPU
MSM
SPU
ML
53%
17-15
64%
18-10
61%
19-12
71%
20-8
ATS
62%
20-12
71%
20-8
61%
19-12
71%
20-8
TTL
81%
26-6
61%
17-11
100%
31-0
100%
28-0
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