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UNLV

REBELSUNLV

7-7  |  Road

62
FINAL
Fri, Jan 9 • 10:00 PM ET
Moby Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

10-5  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
100%
📊
RAMS
0%
REBELS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Colorado State)
RebelsUNLV (-3.5) 0 RamsCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

3.6%

Rams Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

UNLV By 1-7 points

2.7%

UNLV By 8-14 points

0.5%

CSU By 1-7 points

10.7%

CSU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
68
UNLV
86
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
72
UNLV
75
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Rams (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 CSU @ UNLV 91 - 86
Jan 9, 2026 UNLV @ CSU 62 - 70
Feb 22, 2025 CSU @ UNLV 61 - 53
Jan 11, 2025 UNLV @ CSU 62 - 84
Feb 24, 2024 CSU @ UNLV 60 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +19.4% more
Colorado State: 13.8 vs UNLV: 11.5
Free Throw % (L5) +10.8%
Colorado State: 75.1% vs UNLV: 64.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Colorado State: 45.5% vs UNLV: 43.1%
Blocks (L5) +63.6% more
UNLV: 5.6 vs Colorado State: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 68.0 62
CSU Score 86.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.4 / 32.8 43.0 / 35.0
Assists 13.8 / 11.5 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.0 / 5.6 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 43.1 43.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 75.1 / 64.3 70.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 32.7 / 37.9 34.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.4 / 8.8 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 12.1 15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
CSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
CSU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
UNLV
CSU
UNLV
ML
56% 19-15
50% 17-17
65% 20-11
59% 20-14
ATS
62% 21-13
65% 22-12
65% 20-11
59% 20-14
TTL
56% 19-15
62% 21-13
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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