Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Trojans @ Golden Gophers USC @ MINN

USC

TROJANSUSC

12-3  |  Road

70
FINAL
Fri, Jan 9 • 8:30 PM ET
Williams Arena
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

GOLDEN GOPHERSMINN

10-5  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
📊
GOLDEN GOPHERS
0%
TROJANS --
GOLDEN GOPHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Minnesota)
TrojansUSC (-3.5) 0 Golden GophersMINN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

13.6%

Golden Gophers Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MINN -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

USC By 1-7 points

9.3%

USC By 8-14 points

2.7%

MINN By 1-7 points

21.6%

MINN By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
58
USC
69
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
68
USC
75
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Gophers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Gophers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Gophers (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Golden Gophers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 9, 2026 USC @ MINN 70 - 69
Feb 15, 2025 MINN @ USC 69 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +53.5% more
Minnesota: 19.9 vs USC: 13.0
Steals (L5) +12.8% more
Minnesota: 7.9 vs USC: 7.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.2%
Minnesota: 32.3% vs USC: 24.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
Minnesota: 48.3% vs USC: 41.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USC Score 58.0 70
MINN Score 69.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 24.1 34.0 / 29.0
Assists 19.9 / 13.0 19.0 / 18.0
Blocks 2.5 / 4.5 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 41.7 39.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 74.1 / 72.0 60.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 35.7 33.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.9 / 7.0 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 15.4 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
MINN
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
MINN Advantage
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.5
MINN
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
USC
MINN
USC
ML
48% 16-17
52% 16-15
71% 22-9
58% 18-13
ATS
55% 18-15
68% 21-10
71% 22-9
58% 18-13
TTL
52% 17-16
68% 21-10
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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