MARIST
RED FOXESMRST
9-5 | Road
76
SACRED HEART
PIONEERSSHU
5-11 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
RED FOXES
100%
PIONEERS
0%
RED FOXES
--
PIONEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
SACRED HEART
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Sacred Heart)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SHU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHU)
MRST By 1-7 points
4.8%
MRST By 8-14 points
1.1%
SHU By 1-7 points
15.3%
SHU By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Marist
67
MARIST
Sacred Heart
82
SACRED HEART
Simulated Score
Marist
68
MARIST
Sacred Heart
73
SACRED HEART
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pioneers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pioneers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pioneers (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Pioneers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 22, 2026
SHU @ MRST
63 - 65
Jan 9, 2026
MRST @ SHU
76 - 72
Feb 28, 2025
MRST @ SHU
54 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+31.2% more
Sacred Heart: 13.1
vs
Marist: 10.0
Blocks (L5)
+8.2% more
Sacred Heart: 1.5
vs
Marist: 1.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Sacred Heart: 30.3%
vs
Marist: 26.4%
Steals (L5)
+38.5% more
Marist: 9.4
vs
Sacred Heart: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MRST Score
67.0
76
SHU Score
82.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.3 / 26.4
38.0 / 32.0
Assists
12.1 / 16.4
12.0 / 17.0
Blocks
1.5 / 1.3
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.6 / 41.5
42.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
82.4 / 81.9
86.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
33.5 / 38.1
29.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.8 / 9.4
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 10.0
14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRST
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
SHU
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRST
Advantage
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
SHU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -3.0
SHU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHU
MRST
SHU
MRST
ML
61%
20-13
55%
17-14
73%
24-9
61%
19-12
ATS
76%
25-8
74%
23-8
73%
24-9
61%
19-12
TTL
58%
19-14
52%
16-15
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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