Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Eagles @ Gaels NIA @ IONA

NIAGARA

PURPLE EAGLESNIA

4-10  |  Road

53
FINAL
Fri, Jan 9 • 7:00 PM ET
Hynes Athletics Center
View Odds Details →

IONA

GAELSIONA

10-6  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE EAGLES
0%
📊
GAELS
100%
PURPLE EAGLES --
GAELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
IONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Purple EaglesNIA (-3.5) 0 GaelsIONA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Eagles Cover

21.2%

Gaels Cover

78.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IONA +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IONA)

NIA By 1-7 points

25.3%

NIA By 8-14 points

26.2%

IONA By 1-7 points

13.7%

IONA By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
84
NIAGARA
76
IONA
Simulated Score
68
NIAGARA
72
IONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Purple Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gaels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gaels (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim Gaels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 15, 2026 IONA @ NIA 68 - 70
Jan 9, 2026 NIA @ IONA 53 - 71
Feb 28, 2025 IONA @ NIA 65 - 63
Feb 8, 2024 IONA @ NIA 74 - 71
Jan 7, 2024 NIA @ IONA 75 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +29.0% more
Niagara: 4.3 vs Iona: 3.0
Free Throw % (L5) +17.0%
Niagara: 82.5% vs Iona: 65.6%
Assists (L5) +13.2% more
Niagara: 13.2 vs Iona: 11.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.2%
Niagara: 34.0% vs Iona: 24.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIA Score 84.0 53
IONA Score 76.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 24.9 / 34.0 30.0 / 22.0
Assists 11.4 / 13.2 16.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.0 / 4.3 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.2 / 46.3 45.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 65.6 / 82.5 85.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 34.1 / 25.2 42.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.9 / 5.4 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 16.5 / 10.0 9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIA
8-22-0 (26.7%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
IONA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIA
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
IONA Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
IONA
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IONA
NIA
IONA
NIA
ML
41% 13-19
55% 16-13
62% 20-12
72% 21-8
ATS
53% 17-15
69% 20-9
62% 20-12
72% 21-8
TTL
66% 21-11
55% 16-13
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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