MERRIMACK
WARRIORSMRMK
9-7 | Road
63
SIENA
SAINTSSIE
10-5 | Home
59
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
SAINTS
0%
WARRIORS
--
SAINTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
SIENA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Siena)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SIE -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIE)
MRMK By 1-7 points
2.7%
MRMK By 8-14 points
0.5%
SIE By 1-7 points
10.7%
SIE By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Merrimack
78
MERRIMACK
Siena
96
SIENA
Simulated Score
Merrimack
68
MERRIMACK
Siena
72
SIENA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Saints
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Saints
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Saints (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Saints (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o133.5
Loss
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim
u133.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
SIE @ MRMK
64 - 54
Feb 20, 2026
SIE @ MRMK
72 - 79
Jan 9, 2026
MRMK @ SIE
63 - 59
Jan 18, 2025
SIE @ MRMK
58 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+24.3% more
Siena: 35.9
vs
Merrimack: 28.8
Turnovers (L5)
+9.4% more
Siena: 9.8
vs
Merrimack: 9.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.1%
Siena: 78.2%
vs
Merrimack: 73.0%
Blocks (L5)
+48.4% more
Merrimack: 5.4
vs
Siena: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score
78.0
63
SIE Score
96.0
59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.8 / 31.2
25.0 / 45.0
Assists
13.1 / 13.2
9.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.8 / 5.4
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.5 / 44.3
41.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
78.2 / 73.0
78.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
35.9 / 28.8
39.0 / 25.0
Steals
6.5 / 7.5
2.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 9.0
10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
SIE
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK
19-14-1
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
SIE
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -3.2
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIE
MRMK
SIE
MRMK
ML
66%
23-12
47%
16-18
48%
16-17
65%
22-12
ATS
66%
23-12
53%
18-16
48%
16-17
65%
22-12
TTL
54%
19-16
62%
21-13
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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