RIDER
BRONCSRID
1-12 | Road
62
FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
9-7 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCS
100%
STAGS
0%
BRONCS
--
STAGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Fairfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAIR -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)
RID By 1-7 points
5.8%
RID By 8-14 points
1.4%
FAIR By 1-7 points
16.9%
FAIR By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Rider
64
RIDER
Fairfield
78
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
Rider
68
RIDER
Fairfield
72
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stags
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stags
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stags (-8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Stags (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 9, 2026
RID @ FAIR
62 - 68
Feb 21, 2025
FAIR @ RID
69 - 49
Dec 4, 2024
RID @ FAIR
75 - 78
Feb 8, 2024
RID @ FAIR
67 - 84
Dec 3, 2023
FAIR @ RID
88 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+13.7% more
Fairfield: 38.2
vs
Rider: 33.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.7%
Fairfield: 36.5%
vs
Rider: 23.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.0%
Fairfield: 46.0%
vs
Rider: 41.1%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.2%
Fairfield: 77.9%
vs
Rider: 73.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RID Score
64.0
62
FAIR Score
78.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.5 / 23.9
31.0 / 25.0
Assists
11.6 / 12.9
10.0 / 9.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.9
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 41.1
35.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
77.9 / 73.6
73.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
38.2 / 33.6
45.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.3 / 5.3
3.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
7.8 / 10.4
6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RID
4-25-0
(13.8%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
FAIR
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RID
7-18-3
(28.0%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
FAIR
Advantage
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
RID
9-19-0
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
RID
FAIR
RID
ML
55%
18-15
72%
21-8
61%
20-13
66%
19-10
ATS
48%
16-17
72%
21-8
61%
20-13
66%
19-10
TTL
48%
16-17
62%
18-11
100%
33-0
100%
29-0
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