MIAMI (OH)
REDHAWKSM-OH
16-0 | Road
87
TOLEDO
ROCKETSTOL
9-6 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
REDHAWKS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Toledo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOL -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)
M-OH By 1-7 points
0.1%
M-OH By 8-14 points
0.0%
TOL By 1-7 points
0.8%
TOL By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami (OH)
68
MIAMI (OH)
Toledo
99
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
Miami (OH)
72
MIAMI (OH)
Toledo
75
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o166.5
Loss
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim
u166.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
TOL @ M-OH
72 - 74
Jan 9, 2026
M-OH @ TOL
87 - 73
Feb 11, 2025
TOL @ M-OH
80 - 92
Mar 5, 2024
TOL @ M-OH
97 - 63
Jan 5, 2024
M-OH @ TOL
64 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.2% more
Toledo: 7.9
vs
Miami (OH): 6.1
Blocks (L5)
+35.1% more
Miami (OH): 4.7
vs
Toledo: 3.0
Turnovers (L5)
+26.4% more
Miami (OH): 13.2
vs
Toledo: 9.7
Assists (L5)
+12.5% more
Miami (OH): 15.5
vs
Toledo: 13.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
M-OH Score
68.0
87
TOL Score
99.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 37.5
44.0 / 39.0
Assists
13.5 / 15.5
10.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.7
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 51.0
39.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
72.5 / 80.8
85.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
36.0 / 36.7
33.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.9 / 6.1
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 13.2
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
M-OH
Advantage
32-2-0
(94.1%)
Margin: 14.1
ATS +/-: +3.2
TOL
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
M-OH
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 14.1
ATS +/-: +3.2
TOL
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
M-OH
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5%
Total +/-: +5.6
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
M-OH
TOL
M-OH
ML
48%
16-17
45%
15-18
61%
20-13
41%
13-19
ATS
48%
16-17
61%
20-13
61%
20-13
41%
13-19
TTL
64%
21-12
61%
20-13
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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