MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
6-9 | Road
58
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
SHARKSLIU
8-7 | Home
60
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
SHARKS
100%
LAKERS
--
SHARKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Mercyhurst)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MERC -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)
MERC By 1-7 points
2.2%
MERC By 8-14 points
8.0%
LIU By 1-7 points
0.3%
LIU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercyhurst
68
MERCYHURST
Long Island University
41
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
Mercyhurst
68
MERCYHURST
Long Island University
72
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lakers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sharks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lakers (-8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Sharks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
MERC @ LIU
70 - 79
Feb 21, 2026
LIU @ MERC
83 - 91
Jan 8, 2026
MERC @ LIU
58 - 60
Jan 26, 2025
LIU @ MERC
80 - 85
Jan 20, 2025
MERC @ LIU
63 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+18.9% more
Mercyhurst: 8.7
vs
Long Island University: 7.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.6%
Mercyhurst: 75.9%
vs
Long Island University: 66.3%
Assists (L5)
+41.1% more
Long Island University: 18.0
vs
Mercyhurst: 12.8
Turnovers (L5)
+32.7% more
Long Island University: 13.5
vs
Mercyhurst: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MERC Score
68.0
58
LIU Score
41.0
60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 31.4
27.0 / 31.0
Assists
18.0 / 12.8
15.0 / 9.0
Blocks
4.3 / 4.6
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 44.5
41.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
66.3 / 75.9
68.0 / 57.0
Rebounding
37.4 / 31.6
36.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.1 / 8.7
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 10.1
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
LIU
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
LIU
--
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
LIU
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIU
MERC
LIU
MERC
ML
60%
21-14
59%
20-14
69%
24-11
79%
26-7
ATS
63%
22-13
62%
21-13
69%
24-11
79%
26-7
TTL
60%
21-14
53%
18-16
100%
35-0
100%
33-0
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