Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Jazz DAL @ UTAH

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

14-23  |  Road

114
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 9:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

12-24  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
JAZZ
0%
MAVERICKS --
JAZZ --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Utah)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 JazzUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

6.7%

Jazz Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

DAL By 1-7 points

4.8%

DAL By 8-14 points

1.1%

UTAH By 1-7 points

15.3%

UTAH By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
113
DALLAS
128
UTAH
Simulated Score
109
DALLAS
115
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jazz Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jazz Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jazz (+5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Jazz (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u242.0 Win
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim u242.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 UTAH @ DAL 120 - 138
Jan 15, 2026 UTAH @ DAL 122 - 144
Jan 8, 2026 DAL @ UTAH 114 - 116
Dec 15, 2025 DAL @ UTAH 133 - 140
Oct 13, 2025 DAL @ UTAH 114 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +34.5% more
Utah: 31.2 vs Dallas: 23.2
Steals (L5) +29.1% more
Utah: 8.3 vs Dallas: 6.4
Turnovers (L5) +9.0% more
Utah: 16.9 vs Dallas: 15.5
Free Throw % (L5) +2.0%
Utah: 77.3% vs Dallas: 75.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 113.0 114
UTAH Score 128.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 32.2 32.0 / 42.0
Assists 31.2 / 23.2 32.0 / 30.0
Blocks 3.6 / 5.3 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 47.5 49.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 77.3 / 75.4 64.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 48.1 / 47.7 42.0 / 47.0
Steals 8.3 / 6.4 11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 16.9 / 15.5 9.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
DAL
UTAH
DAL
ML
60% 96-63
62% 63-39
48% 40-43
54% 44-37
ATS
68% 108-51
67% 68-34
48% 40-43
54% 44-37
TTL
75% 119-39-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 83-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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