Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Governors @ Eagles APSU @ FGCU

AUSTIN PEAY

GOVERNORSAPSU

8-5  |  Road

82
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 7:00 PM ET
Alico Arena
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA GULF COAST

EAGLESFGCU

7-8  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
GOVERNORS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
GOVERNORS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
AUSTIN PEAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Austin Peay)
GovernorsAPSU (-3.5) 0 EaglesFGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Governors Cover

99.7%

Eagles Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around APSU -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APSU)

APSU By 1-7 points

2.2%

APSU By 8-14 points

8.0%

FGCU By 1-7 points

0.3%

FGCU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
80
AUSTIN PEAY
53
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Simulated Score
69
AUSTIN PEAY
73
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Governors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Governors (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 FGCU @ APSU 62 - 83
Jan 8, 2026 APSU @ FGCU 82 - 71
Feb 13, 2025 FGCU @ APSU 60 - 73
Jan 27, 2024 APSU @ FGCU 67 - 73
Feb 24, 2023 APSU @ FGCU 71 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +43.7% more
Austin Peay: 12.2 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 6.9
Turnovers (L5) +34.3% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 12.4 vs Austin Peay: 9.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
Florida Gulf Coast: 37.7% vs Austin Peay: 31.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Florida Gulf Coast: 47.9% vs Austin Peay: 43.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APSU Score 80.0 82
FGCU Score 53.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 31.0 33.0 / 45.0
Assists 15.8 / 16.2 17.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.9 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 43.6 46.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 77.7 / 77.3 65.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 37.2 / 37.5 34.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.9 / 12.2 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 9.3 15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU Advantage
22-9-0 (71.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
FGCU
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
FGCU
9-22-1 (29.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +2.2
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FGCU
APSU
FGCU
APSU
ML
58% 19-14
53% 16-14
67% 22-11
59% 16-11
ATS
61% 20-13
57% 17-13
67% 22-11
59% 16-11
TTL
61% 20-13
57% 17-13
100% 33-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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