Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wolves @ Ospreys WGA @ UNF

WEST GEORGIA

WOLVESWGA

8-6  |  Road

85
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 7:00 PM ET
UNF Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTH FLORIDA

OSPREYSUNF

2-13  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVES
0%
📊
OSPREYS
100%
WOLVES --
OSPREYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
190.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
WEST GEORGIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (West Georgia)
WolvesWGA (-3.5) 0 OspreysUNF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolves Cover

96.4%

Ospreys Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WGA -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WGA)

WGA By 1-7 points

10.7%

WGA By 8-14 points

21.6%

UNF By 1-7 points

2.7%

UNF By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
104
WEST GEORGIA
86
NORTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
70
WEST GEORGIA
78
NORTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ospreys Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wolves (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Ospreys (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o164.5 Loss
Proj Total: 190.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 UNF @ WGA 85 - 93
Feb 5, 2026 UNF @ WGA 81 - 73
Jan 8, 2026 WGA @ UNF 85 - 73
Jan 25, 2025 UNF @ WGA 72 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +45.7% more
West Georgia: 6.0 vs North Florida: 3.3
Blocks (L5) +42.1% more
West Georgia: 4.8 vs North Florida: 2.8
Rebounding (L5) +10.6% more
West Georgia: 38.8 vs North Florida: 34.7
Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
West Georgia: 44.8% vs North Florida: 41.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WGA Score 104.0 85
UNF Score 86.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 31.3 27.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.9 / 13.0 15.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.8 / 4.8 0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 44.8 44.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 88.6 / 79.6 73.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 34.7 / 38.8 32.0 / 33.0
Steals 3.3 / 6.0 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 10.5 13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WGA Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
UNF
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WGA Advantage
21-9-0 (70.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
UNF
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WGA
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.2
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNF
WGA
UNF
WGA
ML
69% 22-10
58% 18-13
66% 21-11
61% 19-12
ATS
69% 22-10
71% 22-9
66% 21-11
61% 19-12
TTL
66% 21-11
55% 17-14
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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