MAINE
BLACK BEARSME
2-14 | Road
62
UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
7-6 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
BLACK BEARS
0%
RETRIEVERS
100%
BLACK BEARS
--
RETRIEVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
MAINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Maine)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ME -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ME)
ME By 1-7 points
9.3%
ME By 8-14 points
20.1%
UMBC By 1-7 points
2.2%
UMBC By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Maine
88
MAINE
UMBC
69
UMBC
Simulated Score
Maine
68
MAINE
UMBC
71
UMBC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Black Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Retrievers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Black Bears (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Retrievers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o132.5
Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u132.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
UMBC @ ME
78 - 62
Jan 8, 2026
ME @ UMBC
62 - 69
Feb 8, 2025
UMBC @ ME
50 - 73
Jan 18, 2025
ME @ UMBC
87 - 62
Feb 22, 2024
UMBC @ ME
56 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+45.1% more
Maine: 8.8
vs
UMBC: 4.8
Turnovers (L5)
+24.6% more
Maine: 14.9
vs
UMBC: 11.2
Blocks (L5)
+14.0% more
Maine: 3.2
vs
UMBC: 2.7
Assists (L5)
+49.5% more
UMBC: 16.7
vs
Maine: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ME Score
88.0
62
UMBC Score
69.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.4 / 22.6
40.0 / 22.0
Assists
16.7 / 11.1
7.0 / 6.0
Blocks
2.7 / 3.2
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 40.1
43.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
66.0 / 61.3
74.0 / 55.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 31.8
38.0 / 32.0
Steals
4.8 / 8.8
2.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 14.9
8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ME
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -1.9
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ME
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -1.9
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ME
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMBC
ME
UMBC
ME
ML
58%
18-13
45%
14-17
55%
17-14
52%
16-15
ATS
68%
21-10
55%
17-14
55%
17-14
52%
16-15
TTL
39%
12-19
55%
17-14
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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