INDIANA
PACERSIND
6-31 | Road
114
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
13-24 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
HORNETS
0%
PACERS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
IND By 1-7 points
21.6%
IND By 8-14 points
10.7%
CHA By 1-7 points
27.2%
CHA By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
116
INDIANA
Charlotte
119
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Indiana
110
INDIANA
Charlotte
118
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o232.5
Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
IND @ CHA
108 - 129
Feb 26, 2026
CHA @ IND
133 - 109
Jan 8, 2026
IND @ CHA
114 - 112
Nov 19, 2025
CHA @ IND
118 - 127
Apr 2, 2025
CHA @ IND
105 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+36.3% more
Charlotte: 5.0
vs
Indiana: 3.6
Rebounding (L5)
+32.1% more
Charlotte: 48.5
vs
Indiana: 36.7
Turnovers (L5)
+22.2% more
Charlotte: 16.7
vs
Indiana: 13.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.5%
Charlotte: 83.3%
vs
Indiana: 76.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
116.0
114
CHA Score
119.0
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.7 / 42.2
36.0 / 44.0
Assists
23.9 / 30.6
29.0 / 25.0
Blocks
5.0 / 3.6
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 48.7
45.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
83.3 / 76.8
75.0 / 95.0
Rebounding
48.5 / 36.7
35.0 / 41.0
Steals
4.9 / 7.9
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.7 / 13.6
17.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
IND
CHA
IND
ML
61%
60-39
48%
47-50
48%
40-44
54%
45-38
ATS
60%
59-40
59%
57-40
48%
40-44
54%
45-38
TTL
58%
57-42
54%
52-45
100%
84-0
100%
83-0
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