ELON
PHOENIXELON
9-6 | Road
69
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
AGGIESNCAT
7-7 | Home
64
AI Model Win Probability
PHOENIX
0%
AGGIES
100%
PHOENIX
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
ELON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Elon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ELON -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ELON)
ELON By 1-7 points
0.0%
ELON By 8-14 points
0.3%
NCAT By 1-7 points
0.0%
NCAT By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Elon
99
ELON
North Carolina A&T
57
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Simulated Score
Elon
71
ELON
North Carolina A&T
75
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phoenix
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phoenix (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
NCAT @ ELON
102 - 82
Jan 8, 2026
ELON @ NCAT
69 - 64
Feb 13, 2025
NCAT @ ELON
60 - 59
Jan 2, 2025
ELON @ NCAT
75 - 67
Feb 3, 2024
ELON @ NCAT
69 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+20.6% more
Elon: 6.2
vs
North Carolina A&T: 4.9
Assists (L5)
+17.9% more
Elon: 17.1
vs
North Carolina A&T: 14.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Elon: 49.6%
vs
North Carolina A&T: 44.3%
Rebounding (L5)
+24.7% more
North Carolina A&T: 41.4
vs
Elon: 33.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ELON Score
99.0
69
NCAT Score
57.0
64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.3 / 34.3
23.0 / 35.0
Assists
14.0 / 17.1
15.0 / 18.0
Blocks
4.1 / 3.4
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 49.6
39.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
77.6 / 72.2
78.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
41.4 / 33.2
45.0 / 37.0
Steals
4.9 / 6.2
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 10.6
13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ELON
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
NCAT
11-19-0
(36.7%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ELON
11-19-0
(36.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
NCAT
Advantage
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ELON
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
NCAT
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCAT
ELON
NCAT
ELON
ML
52%
14-13
61%
19-12
63%
17-10
71%
22-9
ATS
63%
17-10
55%
17-14
64%
18-10
71%
22-9
TTL
69%
18-8-1
52%
16-15
100%
28-0
100%
31-0
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