UC RIVERSIDE
HIGHLANDERSUCR
6-9 | Road
66
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
7-9 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
100%
ROADRUNNERS
0%
HIGHLANDERS
--
ROADRUNNERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Cal State Bakersfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUB -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUB)
UCR By 1-7 points
0.1%
UCR By 8-14 points
0.0%
CSUB By 1-7 points
1.4%
CSUB By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Riverside
50
UC RIVERSIDE
Cal State Bakersfield
79
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Simulated Score
UC Riverside
68
UC RIVERSIDE
Cal State Bakersfield
72
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Roadrunners
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Roadrunners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Roadrunners (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Roadrunners (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
CSUB @ UCR
65 - 93
Jan 8, 2026
UCR @ CSUB
66 - 67
Feb 8, 2025
CSUB @ UCR
64 - 69
Jan 25, 2025
UCR @ CSUB
83 - 79
Mar 13, 2024
CSUB @ UCR
78 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+57.8% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 8.5
vs
UC Riverside: 5.4
Rebounding (L5)
+14.1% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 34.6
vs
UC Riverside: 30.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.9%
Cal State Bakersfield: 75.3%
vs
UC Riverside: 69.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.8%
Cal State Bakersfield: 33.5%
vs
UC Riverside: 27.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCR Score
50.0
66
CSUB Score
79.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 27.6
46.0 / 45.0
Assists
10.9 / 11.9
9.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.8 / 4.0
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 41.1
37.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
75.3 / 69.4
75.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 30.3
46.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.5 / 5.4
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 13.7
15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCR
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCR
Advantage
14-14-2
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.3
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUB
UCR
CSUB
UCR
ML
55%
17-14
66%
21-11
71%
22-9
75%
24-8
ATS
61%
19-12
59%
19-13
71%
22-9
75%
24-8
TTL
58%
18-13
66%
21-11
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
