Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Redhawks @ Screaming Eagles SEMO @ USI

SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE

REDHAWKSSEMO

8-7  |  Road

84
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 8:30 PM ET
Liberty Arena (IN)
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN INDIANA

SCREAMING EAGLESUSI

3-11  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
0%
📊
SCREAMING EAGLES
100%
REDHAWKS --
SCREAMING EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-60.0
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +60.0 points (Southeast Missouri State)
RedhawksSEMO (-3.5) 0 Screaming EaglesUSI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Redhawks Cover

100.0%

Screaming Eagles Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SEMO -60.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEMO)

SEMO By 1-7 points

0.0%

SEMO By 8-14 points

0.0%

USI By 1-7 points

0.0%

USI By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
109
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
49
SOUTHERN INDIANA
Simulated Score
70
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
75
SOUTHERN INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Redhawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Screaming Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Redhawks (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -60.0
D
Sim Screaming Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 USI @ SEMO 65 - 90
Jan 8, 2026 SEMO @ USI 84 - 76
Feb 8, 2025 SEMO @ USI 79 - 74
Jan 9, 2025 USI @ SEMO 66 - 77
Mar 2, 2024 SEMO @ USI 70 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.6% more
Southeast Missouri State: 13.7 vs Southern Indiana: 10.6
Blocks (L5) +13.1% more
Southeast Missouri State: 4.0 vs Southern Indiana: 3.5
Field Goal % (L5) +9.5%
Southeast Missouri State: 49.6% vs Southern Indiana: 40.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.3%
Southern Indiana: 68.5% vs Southeast Missouri State: 65.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEMO Score 109.0 84
USI Score 49.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.8 / 31.9 28.0 / 50.0
Assists 10.6 / 13.7 9.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.5 / 4.0 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 40.1 / 49.6 42.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 65.2 85.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 34.8 33.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.8 / 7.4 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 12.7 15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEMO Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
USI
7-23-0 (23.3%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEMO Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
USI
11-16-1 (40.7%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -2.4
USI
11-17-0
O: 39.3% / U: 60.7% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USI
SEMO
USI
SEMO
ML
67% 20-10
64% 21-12
61% 17-11
50% 15-15
ATS
70% 21-9
67% 22-11
61% 17-11
50% 15-15
TTL
73% 22-8
58% 19-14
100% 28-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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