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TEXAS STATE

BOBCATSTXST

9-7  |  Road

70
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 8:00 PM ET
Reed Green Coliseum
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

9-7  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
BOBCATS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Texas State)
BobcatsTXST (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

94.5%

Golden Eagles Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TXST -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

TXST By 1-7 points

13.7%

TXST By 8-14 points

24.3%

USM By 1-7 points

4.0%

USM By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
95
TEXAS STATE
79
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
68
TEXAS STATE
72
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bobcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bobcats (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 USM @ TXST 81 - 77
Jan 17, 2026 USM @ TXST 67 - 74
Jan 8, 2026 TXST @ USM 70 - 80
Jan 18, 2025 USM @ TXST 82 - 85
Jan 11, 2025 TXST @ USM 88 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +24.9% more
Texas State: 16.6 vs Southern Miss: 12.5
Steals (L5) +21.5% more
Texas State: 9.7 vs Southern Miss: 7.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Texas State: 32.4% vs Southern Miss: 28.4%
Turnovers (L5) +10.9% more
Southern Miss: 14.5 vs Texas State: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXST Score 95.0 70
USM Score 79.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.4 / 32.4 31.0 / 24.0
Assists 12.5 / 16.6 11.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.2 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 46.6 48.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 80.5 / 72.7 75.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 36.3 39.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.6 / 9.7 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 13.1 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
USM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
USM Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.0
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
TXST
USM
TXST
ML
53% 18-16
42% 13-18
73% 24-9
83% 25-5
ATS
59% 20-14
48% 15-16
74% 25-9
84% 26-5
TTL
68% 23-11
65% 20-11
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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