Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Panthers APP @ GAST

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

9-7  |  Road

52
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 7:00 PM ET
GSU Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA STATE

PANTHERSGAST

5-11  |  Home

50
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (App State)
MountaineersAPP (-3.5) 0 PanthersGAST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

95.5%

Panthers Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around APP -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

APP By 1-7 points

12.2%

APP By 8-14 points

23.0%

GAST By 1-7 points

3.3%

GAST By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
87
APP STATE
70
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
69
APP STATE
74
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 8, 2026 APP @ GAST 52 - 50
Dec 20, 2025 GAST @ APP 70 - 63
Feb 15, 2025 APP @ GAST 65 - 70
Feb 1, 2025 GAST @ APP 76 - 80
Feb 1, 2024 APP @ GAST 81 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +11.8% more
App State: 11.0 vs Georgia State: 9.7
Blocks (L5) +9.3% more
App State: 2.5 vs Georgia State: 2.2
Rebounding (L5) +8.0% more
App State: 38.8 vs Georgia State: 35.7
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
App State: 47.3% vs Georgia State: 45.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 87.0 52
GAST Score 70.0 50
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.6 / 34.5 22.0 / 22.0
Assists 14.6 / 12.5 8.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.5 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 47.3 33.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 87.0 / 59.4 62.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 38.8 33.0 / 49.0
Steals 7.8 / 4.5 4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 11.0 7.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
GAST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
GAST
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
APP
GAST
APP
ML
56% 18-14
62% 20-12
71% 22-9
59% 19-13
ATS
59% 19-13
59% 19-13
71% 22-9
59% 19-13
TTL
59% 19-13
69% 22-10
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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