Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tribe @ Hawks W&M @ MONM

WILLIAM & MARY

TRIBEW&M

11-4  |  Road

70
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 7:00 PM ET
OceanFirst Bank Center
View Odds Details →

MONMOUTH

HAWKSMONM

7-8  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
TRIBE
0%
📊
HAWKS
100%
TRIBE --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MONMOUTH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TribeW&M (-3.5) 0 HawksMONM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tribe Cover

46.0%

Hawks Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MONM +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONM)

W&M By 1-7 points

26.2%

W&M By 8-14 points

16.9%

MONM By 1-7 points

24.3%

MONM By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
82
WILLIAM & MARY
81
MONMOUTH
Simulated Score
69
WILLIAM & MARY
73
MONMOUTH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tribe Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawks (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Hawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 8, 2026 W&M @ MONM 70 - 81
Jan 25, 2025 MONM @ W&M 73 - 78
Feb 8, 2024 W&M @ MONM 64 - 68
Feb 25, 2023 MONM @ W&M 62 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +27.0% more
William & Mary: 18.6 vs Monmouth: 13.6
Steals (L5) +27.0% more
William & Mary: 9.6 vs Monmouth: 7.0
Free Throw % (L5) +3.7%
William & Mary: 78.4% vs Monmouth: 74.8%
Blocks (L5) +111.1% more
Monmouth: 7.0 vs William & Mary: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
W&M Score 82.0 70
MONM Score 81.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 32.4 40.0 / 29.0
Assists 13.6 / 18.6 16.0 / 8.0
Blocks 7.0 / 3.3 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 44.3 47.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 74.8 / 78.4 65.0 / 47.0
Rebounding 34.7 / 36.1 38.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.0 / 9.6 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 10.0 11.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
W&M Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +0.8
MONM
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
W&M Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +0.8
MONM
17-15-1 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
W&M
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -1.8
MONM
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONM
W&M
MONM
W&M
ML
62% 21-13
55% 17-14
64% 21-12
61% 19-12
ATS
62% 21-13
63% 19-11-1
64% 21-12
61% 19-12
TTL
59% 20-14
61% 19-12
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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