Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dons @ Lions SF @ LMU

SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

11-6  |  Road

82
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 11:00 PM ET
Gersten Pavilion
View Odds Details →

LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

LIONSLMU

10-7  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
DONS
0%
📊
LIONS
100%
DONS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (San Francisco)
DonsSF (-3.5) 0 LionsLMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dons Cover

99.9%

Lions Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SF -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-7 points

0.8%

SF By 8-14 points

4.0%

LMU By 1-7 points

0.1%

LMU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
91
SAN FRANCISCO
60
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Simulated Score
73
SAN FRANCISCO
70
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dons (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Dons (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 LMU @ SF 84 - 75
Jan 8, 2026 SF @ LMU 82 - 84
Feb 8, 2025 SF @ LMU 72 - 66
Dec 28, 2024 LMU @ SF 55 - 70
Feb 17, 2024 SF @ LMU 82 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +18.8% more
San Francisco: 39.5 vs Loyola Marymount: 32.1
Assists (L5) +17.0% more
San Francisco: 13.0 vs Loyola Marymount: 10.8
Free Throw % (L5) +10.9%
San Francisco: 69.7% vs Loyola Marymount: 58.8%
Steals (L5) +10.0% more
San Francisco: 5.4 vs Loyola Marymount: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 91.0 82
LMU Score 60.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 27.9 33.0 / 36.0
Assists 10.8 / 13.0 10.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.8 / 2.3 7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 41.4 / 41.1 46.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 58.8 / 69.7 100.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 39.5 38.0 / 49.0
Steals 4.9 / 5.4 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 9.8 8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
LMU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
LMU Advantage
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LMU
SF
LMU
SF
ML
53% 17-15
39% 13-20
50% 16-16
64% 21-12
ATS
47% 15-17
42% 14-19
50% 16-16
64% 21-12
TTL
62% 20-12
73% 24-9
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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