CAL STATE FULLERTON
TITANSCSUF
6-10 | Road
88
UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
12-3 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
100%
TRITONS
0%
TITANS
--
TRITONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UC San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCSD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)
CSUF By 1-7 points
24.3%
CSUF By 8-14 points
13.7%
UCSD By 1-7 points
26.2%
UCSD By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Fullerton
91
CAL STATE FULLERTON
UC San Diego
92
UC SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Cal State Fullerton
69
CAL STATE FULLERTON
UC San Diego
74
UC SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tritons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tritons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tritons (+13.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Tritons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o166.5
Loss
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim
u166.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
UCSD @ CSUF
71 - 75
Jan 8, 2026
CSUF @ UCSD
88 - 71
Mar 1, 2025
CSUF @ UCSD
55 - 100
Jan 4, 2025
UCSD @ CSUF
90 - 51
Feb 17, 2024
CSUF @ UCSD
69 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+18.6% more
UC San Diego: 37.7
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 31.8
Blocks (L5)
+10.6% more
UC San Diego: 2.6
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 2.4
Assists (L5)
+10.2% more
UC San Diego: 16.1
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 14.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.7%
UC San Diego: 76.9%
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 72.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUF Score
91.0
88
UCSD Score
92.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.1 / 34.1
26.0 / 52.0
Assists
16.1 / 14.6
12.0 / 21.0
Blocks
2.6 / 2.4
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 43.3
40.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
76.9 / 72.2
90.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
37.7 / 31.8
39.0 / 28.0
Steals
8.4 / 9.1
1.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 12.0
17.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUF
18-16-0
(52.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUF
Advantage
19-11-2
(63.3%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
UCSD
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUF
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: +0.6
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSD
CSUF
UCSD
CSUF
ML
56%
19-15
68%
23-11
65%
22-12
76%
26-8
ATS
50%
17-17
68%
23-11
65%
22-12
76%
26-8
TTL
62%
21-13
59%
20-14
100%
34-0
100%
34-0
