Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Waves @ Toreros PEPP @ USD

PEPPERDINE

WAVESPEPP

5-12  |  Road

63
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 9:30 PM ET
Jenny Craig Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

TOREROSUSD

6-10  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
WAVES
0%
📊
TOREROS
100%
WAVES --
TOREROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
PEPPERDINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Pepperdine)
WavesPEPP (-3.5) 0 TorerosUSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Waves Cover

96.4%

Toreros Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PEPP -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PEPP)

PEPP By 1-7 points

10.7%

PEPP By 8-14 points

21.6%

USD By 1-7 points

2.7%

USD By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
87
PEPPERDINE
69
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
70
PEPPERDINE
75
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Waves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Toreros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Waves (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Toreros (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 USD @ PEPP 92 - 88
Jan 8, 2026 PEPP @ USD 63 - 83
Feb 13, 2025 USD @ PEPP 81 - 88
Jan 30, 2025 PEPP @ USD 98 - 90
Mar 8, 2024 PEPP @ USD 52 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +10.0% more
Pepperdine: 14.2 vs San Diego: 12.8
Rebounding (L5) +9.4% more
Pepperdine: 29.4 vs San Diego: 26.6
Free Throw % (L5) +7.5%
Pepperdine: 80.4% vs San Diego: 72.9%
Blocks (L5) +45.4% more
San Diego: 2.2 vs Pepperdine: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PEPP Score 87.0 63
USD Score 69.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 30.0 46.0 / 22.0
Assists 14.9 / 13.1 21.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.2 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 40.5 54.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 72.9 / 80.4 67.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 26.6 / 29.4 32.0 / 24.0
Steals 8.1 / 6.3 12.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 14.2 11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PEPP
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
USD Advantage
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PEPP
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
USD Advantage
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.4
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USD
PEPP
USD
PEPP
ML
58% 19-14
62% 20-12
70% 23-10
69% 22-10
ATS
55% 18-15
56% 18-14
70% 23-10
69% 22-10
TTL
61% 20-13
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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