Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bobcats @ Eagles MTST @ EWU

MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

8-7  |  Road

68
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 9:00 PM ET
Reese Court
View Odds Details →

EASTERN WASHINGTON

EAGLESEWU

2-12  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
BOBCATS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
EASTERN WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Eastern Washington)
BobcatsMTST (-3.5) 0 EaglesEWU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

34.5%

Eagles Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around EWU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EWU)

MTST By 1-7 points

20.1%

MTST By 8-14 points

9.3%

EWU By 1-7 points

27.4%

EWU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
86
MONTANA STATE
90
EASTERN WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
72
MONTANA STATE
75
EASTERN WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 EWU @ MTST 72 - 71
Jan 8, 2026 MTST @ EWU 68 - 64
Jan 20, 2025 EWU @ MTST 64 - 74
Jan 4, 2025 MTST @ EWU 63 - 68
Mar 2, 2024 MTST @ EWU 104 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +52.3% more
Eastern Washington: 13.4 vs Montana State: 8.8
Assists (L5) +15.3% more
Eastern Washington: 13.4 vs Montana State: 11.6
Rebounding (L5) +9.0% more
Eastern Washington: 35.5 vs Montana State: 32.6
Blocks (L5) +35.4% more
Montana State: 3.4 vs Eastern Washington: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTST Score 86.0 68
EWU Score 90.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 34.3 22.0 / 35.0
Assists 13.4 / 11.6 14.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.4 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 45.6 36.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 70.1 / 77.6 94.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 32.6 30.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.5 / 6.2 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 8.8 10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
EWU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
EWU Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
EWU
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EWU
MTST
EWU
MTST
ML
64% 21-12
52% 16-15
69% 22-10
67% 20-10
ATS
64% 21-12
52% 16-15
69% 22-10
67% 20-10
TTL
48% 16-17
65% 20-11
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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