UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
8-6 | Road
93
UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
9-6 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
GAUCHOS
100%
AGGIES
--
GAUCHOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
UC DAVIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (UC Davis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCD -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCD)
UCD By 1-7 points
24.3%
UCD By 8-14 points
26.8%
UCSB By 1-7 points
12.2%
UCSB By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Davis
59
UC DAVIS
UC Santa Barbara
50
UC SANTA BARBARA
Simulated Score
UC Davis
67
UC DAVIS
UC Santa Barbara
73
UC SANTA BARBARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Aggies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gauchos
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Aggies (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Gauchos (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
UCSB @ UCD
73 - 79
Feb 5, 2026
UCSB @ UCD
75 - 85
Jan 8, 2026
UCD @ UCSB
93 - 86
Jan 18, 2025
UCD @ UCSB
64 - 60
Dec 7, 2024
UCSB @ UCD
60 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+24.6% more
UC Davis: 19.6
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 14.8
Steals (L5)
+16.7% more
UC Davis: 8.3
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 7.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.2%
UC Davis: 38.4%
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 33.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.5%
UC Davis: 47.0%
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 45.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCD Score
59.0
93
UCSB Score
50.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 38.4
50.0 / 41.0
Assists
14.8 / 19.6
20.0 / 16.0
Blocks
1.9 / 1.9
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 47.0
55.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
82.1 / 77.5
64.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
33.8 / 34.8
26.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.3
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 12.9
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
UCSB
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSB
UCD
UCSB
UCD
ML
59%
19-13
58%
19-14
72%
23-9
64%
21-12
ATS
62%
20-12
61%
20-13
72%
23-9
64%
21-12
TTL
47%
15-17
61%
20-13
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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