Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hilltoppers @ Aggies WKU @ NMSU

WESTERN KENTUCKY

HILLTOPPERSWKU

9-5  |  Road

64
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 9:00 PM ET
Pan American Center
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

8-5  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
HILLTOPPERS
0%
📊
AGGIES
100%
HILLTOPPERS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Western Kentucky)
HilltoppersWKU (-3.5) 0 AggiesNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hilltoppers Cover

99.4%

Aggies Cover

0.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WKU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

WKU By 1-7 points

3.3%

WKU By 8-14 points

10.7%

NMSU By 1-7 points

0.5%

NMSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
92
WESTERN KENTUCKY
67
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
70
WESTERN KENTUCKY
75
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hilltoppers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hilltoppers (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 NMSU @ WKU 70 - 93
Jan 8, 2026 WKU @ NMSU 64 - 80
Mar 1, 2025 WKU @ NMSU 47 - 65
Feb 1, 2025 NMSU @ WKU 69 - 101
Mar 14, 2024 NMSU @ WKU 69 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +25.6% more
Western Kentucky: 43.7 vs New Mexico State: 32.5
Assists (L5) +15.1% more
Western Kentucky: 14.4 vs New Mexico State: 12.2
Steals (L5) +9.1% more
Western Kentucky: 7.3 vs New Mexico State: 6.7
Blocks (L5) +76.1% more
New Mexico State: 4.5 vs Western Kentucky: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 92.0 64
NMSU Score 67.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 34.7 43.0 / 23.0
Assists 12.2 / 14.4 11.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.5 / 2.6 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 38.0 39.0 / 31.0
Free Throw % 74.9 / 75.9 76.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 43.7 49.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.7 / 7.3 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 10.8 11.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
NMSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
NMSU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
WKU
NMSU
WKU
ML
61% 19-12
56% 18-14
67% 20-10
66% 21-11
ATS
65% 20-11
53% 17-15
67% 20-10
66% 21-11
TTL
45% 14-17
56% 18-14
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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