ABILENE CHRISTIAN
WILDCATSACU
9-6 | Road
84
TARLETON STATE
TEXANSTAR
11-5 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
TEXANS
0%
WILDCATS
--
TEXANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Tarleton State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TAR -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)
ACU By 1-7 points
0.0%
ACU By 8-14 points
0.0%
TAR By 1-7 points
0.0%
TAR By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Abilene Christian
58
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Tarleton State
100
TARLETON STATE
Simulated Score
Abilene Christian
70
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Tarleton State
73
TARLETON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Texans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Texans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Texans (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -42.0
D
Sim
Texans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o140.5
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
TAR @ ACU
78 - 84
Feb 16, 2026
ACU @ TAR
62 - 65
Feb 14, 2026
TAR @ ACU
59 - 73
Jan 8, 2026
ACU @ TAR
84 - 80
Feb 27, 2025
ACU @ TAR
52 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+22.6% more
Tarleton State: 12.8
vs
Abilene Christian: 10.4
Blocks (L5)
+13.5% more
Tarleton State: 1.8
vs
Abilene Christian: 1.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.4%
Tarleton State: 39.4%
vs
Abilene Christian: 31.0%
Assists (L5)
+20.1% more
Abilene Christian: 14.6
vs
Tarleton State: 11.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ACU Score
58.0
84
TAR Score
100.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.4 / 31.0
17.0 / 41.0
Assists
11.6 / 14.6
6.0 / 15.0
Blocks
1.8 / 1.6
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 48.2
46.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
73.0 / 80.6
93.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
29.3 / 27.7
26.0 / 30.0
Steals
12.8 / 10.4
12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 14.2
14.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ACU
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: -2.6
TAR
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ACU
13-16-1
(44.8%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: -2.6
TAR
Advantage
14-14-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +1.4
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TAR
ACU
TAR
ACU
ML
59%
19-13
67%
22-11
66%
21-11
70%
23-10
ATS
69%
22-10
55%
18-15
66%
21-11
70%
23-10
TTL
50%
16-16
58%
19-14
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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