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NORTHWESTERN

WILDCATSNU

8-6  |  Road

66
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 6:30 PM ET
Breslin Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

13-2  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
WILDCATS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
99.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
WildcatsNU (-3.5) 0 SpartansMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

24.2%

Spartans Cover

75.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSU +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

NU By 1-7 points

26.2%

NU By 8-14 points

25.3%

MSU By 1-7 points

15.3%

MSU By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
53
NORTHWESTERN
46
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
72
NORTHWESTERN
75
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 99.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 8, 2026 NU @ MSU 66 - 76
Jan 12, 2025 MSU @ NU 78 - 68
Mar 6, 2024 NU @ MSU 49 - 53
Jan 7, 2024 MSU @ NU 74 - 88
Dec 4, 2022 NU @ MSU 70 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +2.4%
Northwestern: 76.8% vs Michigan State: 74.4%
Turnovers (L5) +112.5% more
Michigan State: 14.1 vs Northwestern: 6.6
Rebounding (L5) +40.3% more
Michigan State: 42.7 vs Northwestern: 30.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.3%
Michigan State: 36.6% vs Northwestern: 27.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NU Score 53.0 66
MSU Score 46.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 27.2 28.0 / 23.0
Assists 17.8 / 18.8 17.0 / 14.0
Blocks 5.3 / 5.1 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 46.9 49.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 74.4 / 76.8 70.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 42.7 / 30.4 42.0 / 25.0
Steals 6.3 / 5.8 3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 6.6 15.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU
16-16-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
MSU Advantage
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.0
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
NU
MSU
NU
ML
71% 25-10
47% 16-18
61% 20-13
68% 23-11
ATS
71% 25-10
50% 17-17
61% 20-13
68% 23-11
TTL
49% 17-18
53% 18-16
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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