MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BLUE RAIDERSMTSU
9-5 | Road
80
UTEP
MINERSUTEP
4-10 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE RAIDERS
0%
MINERS
100%
BLUE RAIDERS
--
MINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTSU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)
MTSU By 1-7 points
27.2%
MTSU By 8-14 points
23.0%
UTEP By 1-7 points
18.6%
UTEP By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Middle Tennessee
75
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UTEP
70
UTEP
Simulated Score
Middle Tennessee
68
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UTEP
72
UTEP
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Raiders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Miners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Raiders (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Miners (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
UTEP @ MTSU
67 - 77
Jan 8, 2026
MTSU @ UTEP
80 - 83
Mar 1, 2025
MTSU @ UTEP
76 - 75
Feb 1, 2025
UTEP @ MTSU
68 - 71
Feb 17, 2024
UTEP @ MTSU
90 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+33.2% more
Middle Tennessee: 3.9
vs
UTEP: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+16.2% more
Middle Tennessee: 8.2
vs
UTEP: 6.9
Assists (L5)
+15.8% more
Middle Tennessee: 13.4
vs
UTEP: 11.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
Middle Tennessee: 38.3%
vs
UTEP: 32.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score
75.0
80
UTEP Score
70.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 38.3
42.0 / 36.0
Assists
11.3 / 13.4
13.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.6 / 3.9
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
39.3 / 44.3
43.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
72.8 / 64.8
69.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
32.3 / 33.5
38.0 / 32.0
Steals
6.9 / 8.2
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 11.3
9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
UTEP
11-20-0
(35.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
UTEP
Advantage
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.7
UTEP
12-15-1
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTEP
MTSU
UTEP
MTSU
ML
70%
21-9
56%
18-14
72%
21-8
69%
22-10
ATS
57%
17-13
75%
24-8
73%
22-8
69%
22-10
TTL
60%
18-12
53%
17-15
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
