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IDAHO STATE

BENGALSIDST

8-7  |  Road

72
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 8:00 PM ET
Bank of Colorado Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN COLORADO

BEARSUNCO

10-5  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
BENGALS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-43.0
IDAHO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +43.0 points (Idaho State)
BengalsIDST (-3.5) 0 BearsUNCO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

100.0%

Bears Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IDST -43.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDST)

IDST By 1-7 points

0.0%

IDST By 8-14 points

0.2%

UNCO By 1-7 points

0.0%

UNCO By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
92
IDAHO STATE
49
NORTHERN COLORADO
Simulated Score
71
IDAHO STATE
76
NORTHERN COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bengals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bengals (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -43.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 UNCO @ IDST 69 - 61
Jan 8, 2026 IDST @ UNCO 72 - 85
Feb 3, 2025 UNCO @ IDST 86 - 72
Jan 4, 2025 IDST @ UNCO 92 - 93
Mar 10, 2024 IDST @ UNCO 83 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +86.5% more
Idaho State: 4.3 vs Northern Colorado: 0.6
Steals (L5) +44.4% more
Idaho State: 5.6 vs Northern Colorado: 3.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Idaho State: 42.0% vs Northern Colorado: 36.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Idaho State: 46.7% vs Northern Colorado: 44.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDST Score 92.0 72
UNCO Score 49.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 42.0 46.0 / 18.0
Assists 15.8 / 16.2 16.0 / 2.0
Blocks 0.6 / 4.3 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 46.7 52.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 71.3 73.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 32.6 31.0 / 35.0
Steals 3.1 / 5.6 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 10.5 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDST
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
UNCO Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDST
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
UNCO Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.4
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCO
IDST
UNCO
IDST
ML
50% 16-16
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
72% 23-9
ATS
53% 17-15
50% 16-16
66% 21-11
72% 23-9
TTL
50% 16-16
59% 19-13
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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